The title of this article is taken from the well-known "Winds of change" speech by former British prime minister Harold Macmillan in South Africa on February 3, 1960. After spending a month in Africa visiting a number of British colonies, he was convinced that the British colonial order was slowly but surely coming to an end in Africa. His speech indicated that the Conservative Party, which formed the British government at the time, would no longer be able to prevent black people in Africa from claiming the right to rule themselves.
Macmillan expressed this belief in his speech as follows: "The wind of change is blowing through this continent. Whether we like it or not, this growth of national consciousness is a political fact."
More than 60 years later we are experiencing winds of change not only on a global level, but also on a local level, characterised by the growth of national consciousness in the USA, China, Europe, many other countries and also here on South African soil.
However, to truly understand what these winds of change entail, we need to understand the nature and extent of them. And especially the direction in which they are blowing, especially in terms of national consciousness and its socio-political and economic implications.
In some countries we see a strong focus on protectionism and promotion of ethno-nationalist interests. In others there is a strong backlash against transactional politics and a strong swing toward the protection of national sovereignty and interdependence. In some countries there is a strong focus on centralisation of state power and economic domination. In other countries there is a groundswell of opposition against patronage, corruption and poor governance.
On home soil we are experiencing several winds of change first-hand – including "winds" that are mere noise! And we need to distinguish clearly between them, especially in a world trapped in political and economic turmoil where nothing seems to make sense anymore.
Locally winds of change created the biggest upset in last year's national elections. A record number of 52 political parties contested the elections. Political parties' onslaught to solicit votes ranged from statements blaming the ANC's failures, illegal migrants, the South African flag, the Constitution and even gays, to calls for the reintroduction of the death penalty, secession of the Western Cape and replacing the authority of the Constitution with parliamentary and traditional leaders. Noise-making at best!
The election result failed to produce a majority government. President Ramaphosa then extended an invitation to all political parties to becomes part of a Government of National Unity (GNU) on condition that they commit themselves to the principles contained in a Declaration of Intent. Ten political parties decided in favour of such participation.
Today we have a GNU that is doing reasonably well, albeit under trying and divisive circumstance. However, it has failed to rein in the ANC and make it realise that it is part of a coalition that must govern on the basis of a set of principles as contained in the Declaration of Intent. The ANC's culture of imposing its policy position on law-making processes is deeply embedded in the party's DNA and it poses a major risk in terms of eroding and undermining these principles.
All parties forming part of the GNU committed themselves to upholding the following fundamental principles: respect for the Constitution and the Bill of Rights as a whole, a united South Africa, the rule of law, non-racialism and non-sexism, accountability, transparency, community participation in government, evidence-based policy- and decision-making, a professional, merit-based, non-partisan, developmental public service that puts people first, integrity, good governance and accountable leadership.
However, these principles have not deterred the ANC's proclivity for power. In a coalition environment in which political opportunism is rampant and where backstabbing is becoming the norm on the surface, parties are now forced to go to the courts to seek judicial relief, such as in the case of the VAT saga, which was taken to court by the DA and EFF, and the Employment Equity Amendment Act, which requires compliance with race-based targets. The latter is currently before the court. The DA is disputing section 15A, which it says imposes binding quotas and grants unchecked powers to the government. This article sets numerical targets to be met by different employers in various industries.
Ironically, after a court case political opportunism is rampant again, and every party that voted in favour of the VAT increase of 0,5% with the ANC has claimed that it was through them that the court reversed the decision. A lot of "windy" noise for sure.
What are the implications of all of this noise and rivalry among parties within the GNU? Firstly, South Africans will have to make peace with the noise that often emanates from the GNU. That the GNU resonates with many South Africans is certain. The public is also learning very quickly to separate the wheat from the chaff. Secondly, the DA will also have to make peace with the culture of political opportunism that prevails in the GNU and learn to leverage it to their advantage. The ANC succeeds and makes no secret of using it to their advantage.
The ideal is to channel the political opportunism of smaller parties in a direction to address the issues that affect all South Africans and find lasting solutions. Herein lies the opportunity for the DA. It is to transform the circus of political opportunism into a think tank of super-ideas to address the following challenges and find solutions:
– 13,2 million South Africans live in extreme poverty. That number grew by 140 000 in just one year.
– Unemployment stands at 32,1%. According to Statistics SA, almost 6 in 10 young people between the ages of 15 and 24, and almost 4 out of 10 young people between the ages of 25 and 34, are unemployed. Youth unemployment among 15- to 24-year-olds has reached a catastrophic 59,6%.
– Almost 28 million South Africans receive social grants. Only 7,9 million personal income taxpayers fund this system. The percentage of grant-dependent citizens has tripled from 13% in 2003 to nearly 40% today.
As these massive crises confront our country, GNU partners are undermining one another. Within the ANC itself there are leaders such as Deputy President Paul Mashatile, the Gauteng premier Panyaza Lesufi, and others who want to kick the DA out of the GNU. They make no secret of their overtures to the EFF and even MKP to establish a new GNU.
Certain ANC members are already campaigning for the presidency in the run-up to the local elections and in the run-up to the ANC's 56th national conference in 2027. And it's going to be a race to watch. However, it is the ANC's consultative conference later this year which should be watched. This may produce surprises and upset the apple cart for Cyril Ramaphosa. Something we can hardly afford as a country!
Where does Ramaphosa stand in the midst of all this turmoil? As the country's president and as leader of the GNU one would expect much more involvement and directional leadership from him, especially leadership that focuses on unity within his cabinet and on managing differences. However, it is not his style to micromanage his cabinet. This task he leaves to the GNU's dispute resolution mechanism to settle fundamental policy differences. He knows the difference between real "winds" and "noise"! Strategically, he focuses on the former!
This is to strategically strengthen his own position in the ANC and that of the ANC itself. He started doing this firstly by getting on the populist bandwagon by signing the Bela Act, Expropriation Act, NHI Act and the Employment Equity Amendment Act, fully knowing what the economic and social implications would be if implemented in a way that would cause more harm than good. Secondly, he is also leveraging South Africa's presidency of the G20 to his advantage.
The annual meeting of the G20 government leaders will be held in Johannesburg in November this year. The G20 members collectively represent 85% of global GDP, about two thirds of the world's population, and more than 75% of global trade. The G20 consists of 19 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Türkiye, the United Kingdom and the USA and two regional bodies, namely the European Union and the African Union.
It is very clear that Ramaphosa is using this opportunity to establish himself as a global leader and to use it as a trump card to perhaps achieve peace, to negotiate a trade dispensation for South Africa, to neutralise his enemies within the ANC and to strengthen his own position in such a way that he can influence the choice of the next president to take over from him. The recent meeting with President Zelensky and his phone calls to Presidents Trump and Putin in recent weeks point to a diplomatic and political manoeuvre that may pay off. In the background he is strategically generating his own winds of change. Time will tell what the outcome will be.
Meanwhile, the winds of protectionism and promotion of ethno-nationalist interests are blowing up a storm in the USA. Some believe the winds have now become a hurricane because of devastating economic consequences for the US and also for the stature of the US as a reliable and stable world leader.
Data shows that since Trump's inauguration, executive orders have been a crucial tool for his administration's transactional approach to geopolitics. It's also clear that the more than 100 executive orders he has issued since his inauguration have been fundamental to the winds of change restructuring the way the US is governed and have changed the course of its foreign and domestic policy.
Trump's goal is to establish the US as a global power, industrial hub and most prosperous and economically self-sustaining nation. To that end he has signed executive orders virtually daily and also introduced tariff increases against 60 countries. He argues that the move is necessary to combat trade imbalances and restore US manufacturing. To date he has defended the tariffs and dismissed concerns that tariffs on imported goods from China will increase consumer costs. But economists insist that taxing goods from other countries before they reach US businesses and customers will raise prices for all Americans. Meanwhile, the trade war between China and the US continues in all fierceness.
Weeks of threats back and forth between the world's two largest economies have driven US tariffs on Chinese products to a staggering 145% and Chinese tariffs on US goods to 125%.
In China the winds of centralisation of state power and economic domination have enabled it to become the "world's factory". The success of the Chinese "Made in China 2025" (MIC25) initiative can be attributed to the massive reserve of cheap and highly productive labour, but also the development of a massive pool of highly skilled and technically skilled labour. China's ports are managed cost-effectively and more roads and railway lines have been built there in the last 10 years than in the rest of the world combined. By integrating thousands of suppliers into an unparalleled upstream ecosystem, they are able to deliver products far more cheaply than the US.
This led to Washington's trade deficit with Beijing reaching nearly $300 billion in 2024. And the reason: the US's reliance on key products from the Asian giant. It's the thorn in the side of the US economy, which President Trump frequently criticises and sees as a sign of weakness.
Nearly half of the US trade imbalance between imports and exports is concentrated in three countries that have been primary targets of Trump's trade policies: China, Mexico and Canada, in that order. Mexico has emerged as the top export partner to the US, overtaking China in 2023 and strengthening its position in 2024. Thanks to the preferential access granted by the USA-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) Mexico has capitalised on its geographical proximity and trade ties with the US market.
One could rightly ask where it is all going to end. Which winds of change will bring about change for the better and which winds pose risks? The revival of national consciousness brought about by these winds … will it promote and strengthen peace, freedom, human dignity and rights, democracy, free and fair trade, the independence of the judiciary, human rights, respect for countries' sovereignty, social justice and peace and protect the environment throughout the world, or will it result in the opposite? The world is understandably on edge and we should all keep our fingers crossed that the former triumphs.
This also applies to the winds on local shores. For our own sanity we will have to distinguish between real winds and noise. It will indeed require delicate tap-dancing among the members of the GNU to secure its future. There is a growing national consciousness that this is South Africa's only hope. Therefore, winds filled with egos, vindictiveness, political opportunism and backstabbing cannot be allowed to direct the outputs of the GNU. It is the Constitution and Bill of Human Rights that should direct the way. These provide the blueprint by which the GNU's success should be measured. And the blueprint to recognise, protect and promote the human rights of every citizen. Let us redirect the winds of change that started blowing in South Africa from the founding of our constitutional democracy to make it a reality for everyone.
The post Winds of change and the growth of national consciousness first appeared on LitNet.
The post Winds of change and the growth of national consciousness appeared first on LitNet.